One of the favourite hobbies of modern political scientists is predicting the future of the world balance of power. Often, they focus on the United States-China competition that is beginning to come into view. What, however, do political scientists predict for Europe? In the two recent books, The Last Days of Europe: Epitaph for an Old Continent, by Walter Laqueur and Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century, by Mark Leonard, two starkly contrasting predictions of the future of Europe are portrayed.
There is little disagreement that Europe is no longer the economic or political force that it once was, in the period of colonial empires that spanned whole continents. With the end of the Second World War, and the subsequent Cold War, Europe has entered into a period of relative calm, a so-called “Pax Europaea”. The countries of Europe are co-operating on a level never before seen in history. Rather than engaging in bloody skirmishes against each other, they are blazing a new trail of close integration. Their co-operative monetary policy through the European Central Bank, shared agricultural policy, new shared military initiatives (such as EUFOR) are all examples of a dissolution of traditional continental conflicts. However, the future of the European Community is a hotly debated topic. In these two previously mentioned books, authors debate the domestic and international pressures that will dictate the future of the continent.
In Laqueur’s book, he makes very bleak predictions for Europe. He argues that a combination of factors relating to demographics will permanently alter the face of Western Europe. Through lax immigration policies, and the relatively low birth rate of ethnic Europeans, Laqueur argues, the racial background of the continent will change. According to Laqueur, recent immigrants to Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are not assimilating into society, which leads to clashes between the ethnic groups. He points to the murder of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands, a controversial filmmaker and critic of Islam. Van Gogh’s gruesome murder sent shock waves through the Netherlands, inciting an increase in anti-Islamic violence. This sort of conflict and tension, he believes, will significantly weaken Europe, in part due to the accepting nature of European society. It is evident, Laqueur believes, that the politics of Europe, both domestically and internationally, will change with the shift in demographics.
On the other hand, Mark Leonard’s book is more focused on the foreign policy of the EU and member states, and the nature of European “soft power”. Leonard primarily addresses the belief that unilateralist American foreign policy will continue to dominate the world stage. On the contrary, he argues; the multilateralist nature of the governance of the European Union will serve as an example for future international co-operation. Due to the confrontational nature of American foreign policy, under the previous administration, the United States’ image abroad has become tarnished, and is not capable of executing complex diplomatic maneuvers that may be required of it. With the Obama administration, this is changing, though it can be argued that U.S. policy is, in fact, taking some cues from Europe. With President Obama saying that he is willing to meet with leaders of states that were considered opponents of the United States, it is clear that a new page is being turned at the State Department.
Whether either of these predictions will be true is unknown at the current stage. One is particularly pessimistic, and the other very optimistic. For certain, however, is that the world’s largest economy and second largest military spender, the European Union, will continue to be a force in global politics for decades to come. No matter the change in balance of power between the United States and China, it is unlikely that the most dire predictions of Laqueur’s creation will ring true. Neither will the old continent be able to overcome the demographic, environmental, and economic issues that face it in the future. All will rely upon the ability of the European multilateral approach to succeed, and upon the fragile system of governance that resides in Brussels.
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