The two most powerful regional powers: Turkey and Iran; (Nov. 10, 2009)
Turkey is the 16th ranked economy and Iran the 17th with the understanding that Turkey has no oil or gas production while Iran is the second exporter of oil and the second in world’s reserve. Turkey has a population of 70 million while Iran is about 60 million. Iran is much larger than Turkey in superficies but they are big enough to be considered self sufficient and independent nations. Turkey is the turnpike for most of oil and gas pipelines originating in Russia, Iran, and central Asia and converging to Europe. Russia has borders with both nations that dictated their foreign policies. Both countries have over 7 States on their borders. Both nations share the Kurdish problem for self-autonomy: The Kurds are about over 20 millions and live in inaccessible mountain chains and high plateaus; they overflow to vast regions in East Turkey and West Iran. Turkey is mostly Moslem Sunnis and Iran Moslem Chiaa since the 18th century. Since antiquity, Turkey influence reached to the Euphrates River while Iran to the Tigers River; both large rivers take sources in Turkey and cross Iraq. The good news is that these two most powerful regional powers have many interests in common that dwarf any petty political divergences; they are the cornerstone for a new economic and strategic alliance in the Middle East.
Brief history: Throughout antiquity till our modern days three main empires dominated the landscape of the Middle East. Turkey, Iran, and Egypt were vast economic and political empires the advent of Islam. Turkey and Iran managed to enjoy a semi-continuous existence of empires but Egypt had large vacuums of many centuries in between empires since the Pharaohs. Egypt enjoyed special status during the Greek, Roman, Arab, and Ottoman empires and was a world apart as wheat basket and the most advanced in civilization. Turkey and Iran could benefit from stable “national” entities but Egypt experienced foreign leaders as kings or sultans and relied on foreign officers to lead its armies, the latest dynasty was from Albania with Muhammad Ali.
The three empires are currently mostly Moslems and they were in general lenient with the minority religious sects. The three empires have vast lands, rich in water, and have currently about the same number of population of about 70 millions and increasing at high rates. The Iranian empires relied on Afghanistan’s and the central Asian’s tribes for their armies. As the frequent Mogul raids descended on Persia its armies went on the defensive. The Turkish and Ottoman empires relied on the Caucasus tribes from current Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia States, and also from Albania and Romania.
As Russia started to expand southward and occupied many of these regions then Turkey curtailed most of its vast military campaigns and went on the defensive. The Caucasus triangle of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia is still a hot spot for domination among Russia, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran, especially with the oil and gas pipelines that pass through them. My post “Cursed Cities: Cars” would shed detailed historical accounts on that tragic triangle.
Modern Status:
In around 1920’s two military dictators ruled over Iran and Turkey. Rida “shah” in Iran and “Attaturk” in Turkey were attempting to modernize their infrastructure and civil administrations by emulating the European examples. Attaturk went as far as changing the Turkish alphabet to Latin. Both dictators confronted the religious clerics for establishing secular States with unequal long term successes. Iran has reverted to religious oligarchy after Khomeini came to power.
While Iran was historically more lenient with its minorities it appears that Turkey is practically taking steps to outpacing Iran in that advantage; for example, Turkey is translating the Koran into the ethnic languages such as Kurdish. Women in Turkey are prominent in businesses such as Goler Sabanji; 9% of women are represented in the Parliament. In Iran, Shireen Abadi is Nobel laureate for defending women’s rights; Iranian women represent only 3% in the Parliament though they constitute 65% in universities.
In the 70’s, Iran was flush with oil revenue while Turkey was struggling to establish an industrial infrastructure. It appears that in the long term oil is definitely a curse for emerging nations because wealth is not invested on the human potentials and stable modern political structure.
In 2008, foreign investment in Turkey was 14 billions dollars and increasing while it amounted to just one billion in Iran. Turkey has expanded its representation in Africa by opening 12 new Embassies and 20 new consulates.
Nisreen Ozaimy is from Iran by origin and fled to Turkey; when her family lived in Turkey it was impressed by the confidence that the Turks valued their various ethnic nationalities; they had this implicit feeling that Turkey is in fact a bridge between East and West. The Turks managed to blend harmoniously the secular and religious inclinations. Turkey is a member of NATO and has a chance to joining the European Union. Turkey is out of its 60 years hibernation and is currently very active in Middle East Affairs. Turkey is on excellent terms with Syria: they recently opened their borders to enter without visas and are conducting joint military maneuvers. Turkey is about to reach a peace agreement with the Kurdish opposition movement. Iran is struggling to be incorporated in the world community and the nuclear issue is poisoning its relations with the western nations.
Note: this is a revised and updated version of my post “Turkey and Iran: Same and Different (April 25, 2009)”
No comments:
Post a Comment